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There’s been a lot of this kind of talk before with China — promises made, commitments watered down, and in the end trade frameworks that look good on paper but amount to very little. But this summit at the White House is going to be different.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer were in final ministerial talks with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng at JPMorgan Chase’s Manhattan headquarters on Sunday in a full-day session intended to set the table for the summit between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on September 24.
On the table: artificial intelligence, rare earth minerals, the November 10 expiration of the Busan trade truce, and who shapes the next century of technological development. Both sides have strong incentive to extend the truce — bilateral tariffs peaked at triple digits before being capped near 20 percent in Busan.
On rare earths, Washington has a legitimate complaint. Beijing committed in Busan to resume shipments of critical materials needed for semiconductor manufacturing. A senior U.S. official said China’s performance has fallen short. That is a polite way of saying Beijing is still using supply chain leverage as a negotiating card.
Bessent proposed an AI incident notification mechanism to He Lifeng in preparatory talks — a first step toward mutual guardrails without agreeing to slow development. That is likely the ceiling of what can be achieved here. Neither Washington nor Beijing has a strategic incentive to pump the brakes while the other keeps its foot on the gas.
Stanford’s 2026 AI Index found that U.S. and Chinese frontier AI models have traded the lead several times since early 2025. By March 2026, the leading American model held only a 2.7 percent advantage over its Chinese counterpart. China installed roughly 295,000 industrial robots in 2024 — 54 percent of all global installations — and is embedding AI into manufacturing at a pace Washington cannot ignore.
The globalist establishment spent years managing China with coordinated multilateral pressure that Beijing absorbed and ignored. Trump’s bilateral dealmaking model puts American interests at the center of the table. The question is whether tomorrow’s summit delivers concrete deliverables on rare earths and AI — or whether Beijing once again buys time with promises it has no intention of keeping.
