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The last few hours have set the hopes for peace back a little as President Trump and the Ayatollah traded blows over control of the Strait of Hormuz.
First was the new Supreme Leader, Ayatoolah Motjaba Khameini's post on X that:
"We will definitely take the management of the Strait of Hormuz to a new phase."
Which prompted a response from President Trump:
"There are reports that Iran is charging fees to tankers going through the Hormuz Strait — They better not be and, if they are, they better stop now!"
And then an hour or so later, President Trump turned the rhetoric dial up to '11' once again:
"Iran is doing a very poor job, dishonorable some would say, of allowing Oil to go through the Strait of Hormuz.
That is not the agreement we have!"
Having earlier described Iran’s leaders as “much more reasonable” than their public comments would suggest, the new Supreme Leader also repeated demands for war reparations - a definite non-starter for US negotiators.
Stocks dipped and oil rallied modestly on this tête-à-tête.
It sounds like the adults really need to get in a room and figure this out (VP JD Vance is expected to lead the US delegation in discussions scheduled for Islamabad on Saturday) or the rally in stocks (and decline in oil costs) will be gone before anyone books any profits.
* * *
Trump 'Optimistic' Iran Deal Within Reach, After 1st Non-Iranian Tanker Transits Hormuz Since Ceasefire
AFP has cited MarineTraffic monitor to report that the first non-Iranian tanker has transited the Strait of Hormuz since the ceasefire began.
Also per NBC, Trump says he is optimistic that an Iran peace deal is within reach, as Vance is set to head up the American side for Pakistan talks, scheduled for Saturday morning.
The Ayatollah appeals for Gulf countries to distance themselves from Washington:
We’re still waiting for an appropriate response from you, our southern neighbors, so that we may demonstrate our brotherhood and goodwill to you. This will not be realized unless you renounce the Arrogant Powers, who miss no opportunity to humiliate and exploit you.— Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei (@MKhamenei_ir) April 9, 2026
This marks the most direct signal yet from the US President himself that negotiations could have real momentum. He also told NBC that Tehran is "more agreeable than it shows in public." However, despite these 'positives' - the case of Israel-Lebanon fighting could derail a lasting peace:
Hezbollah MP says group rejects any direct talks between Lebanon, Israel
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"Negotiating" with moslems is an exercise in frustration, best accomplished with deadlines and overwhelming force. When they are made to realize there is no successful quibble to achieve further delay, they will often attack.
Keep in mind, they will make the pretense of compliance with any agreement until they decide they have wherewithal to break the agreement.