IDF in Lebanon
Credit: Wikimedia Commons (CC)

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Israeli Diaspora Affairs Minister Amichai Chikli issued two blunt warnings this week about Israel’s next regional fronts — starting with Syria.

“Syria is Gaza on steroids, and that is the next war, with absolute certainty. There is no avoiding it,” Chikli said.

On the nature of the threat, Chikli was equally direct: “Anyone who has taken three undergraduate classes on jihad movements knows that Jolani is the next enemy of Israel — with two seaports and a superpower behind him.”

The statements came as Israeli military activity in southern Lebanon continues nearly two months after the June 17 ceasefire that largely ended fighting between Israel and Hezbollah — with Lebanese civil defense officials and firefighters now accusing the Israeli military of deliberately igniting wildfires across the region’s forests, olive groves, and agricultural land.

Wildfire Allegations: What Firefighters Are Saying

Hussein Fakih, head of civil defence in the Nabatieh region, told The Guardian that Israeli forces have been systematically starting fires since the ceasefire took effect. He described drone-dropped incendiary materials, white phosphorus shells fired into woodlands, and illumination flares dropped during daylight hours to ignite dry vegetation. The Guardian is a known anti-Israel publication.

“They started doing this right after the ceasefire, and there have been incendiary bombs every day,” Fakih said. “Most of our missions are now related to fires. There are enormous areas of woodland that have burned — in the areas close to the frontline, around 30–40% of the land has been affected.”

On Tuesday, the Israeli military dropped flares in a wooded area outside Khiam. When Lebanese firefighters moved to extinguish the blaze, a drone struck nearby, forcing their withdrawal. Fakih described similar incidents occurring repeatedly across southern Lebanon since mid-June.

Firefighters are required to coordinate movements with the Lebanese army, which relays requests through a deconfliction channel that includes the Israeli military. In multiple cases, crews were granted access to fight fires at only two locations while blazes raged unchecked elsewhere.

In the Kfarchouba area near the border, civil defence station chief Samir Hardan said a drone dropped munitions into woodland on Friday afternoon, sparking a major fire. After crews battled through the night and extinguished the blaze Saturday, another drone started a new fire Sunday.

Hisham Younes, founder of Green Southerners, a Lebanese conservation organization, described the environmental toll: “These are long-established woodlands, dominated by productive stone pine alongside oak. They perform critical functions. The wider area is also an important passage and resting ground for migratory birds.”

The Israeli military has not publicly commented on the wildfire allegations. Israel has not confirmed or denied that its forces are deliberately targeting agricultural land or forests in southern Lebanon.

‘Syria Is Next’ — Chikli’s Warning

Chikli’s reference to Ahmad al-Jolani — the Syrian rebel leader turned transitional authority head who goes by the name Abu Mohammad al-Jolani — points to a specific concern inside Israeli government circles: that Syria’s new leadership, despite its post-Assad rebranding, remains rooted in jihadist ideology and is now backed by a regional power with access to two Mediterranean seaports.

Israeli forces have conducted repeated strikes inside Syrian territory since Assad’s fall in late 2024. The minister’s framing — “Gaza on steroids” — suggests Israeli officials view a Syrian campaign as significantly larger in scale and complexity than the Gaza operation, which has now stretched more than two years.

No timeline for any Syrian operation has been announced. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has not publicly confirmed military planning for Syria. Chikli’s statements reflect a faction of Israeli government officials who view Syria’s current leadership as an unresolved strategic threat — one that is better armed and better positioned than Hamas ever was.

US Rejects Israel's Push For Permanent Lebanon Occupation

The Trump administration has criticized Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz for pledging to maintain a permanent military footprint in southern Lebanon.

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