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Posted Zero Hedge
After 48 hours of messaging triumphalism about US achievements, escalatory warnings tied to the Strait and energy targets, frustration with allies, and signals of de-escalation with a shortened timeline for reduced US involvement... President Trump addressed the nation tonight about the war in Iran.
Trump began by stating that the US is targeting the world's number 1 State-Sponsor of terror - Iran.
There have been many "swift, decisive, overwhelming victories on the battlefield" in Operation Epic Fury against Iran, he continued.
Trump describes the military operations as "quick, lethal, violent" and "respected" all over the world.
- *TRUMP: IRAN'S NAVY IS GONE, AIR FORCE IN RUINS
- *TRUMP: MOST OF IRAN'S LEADERS ARE DEAD
- *TRUMP: IRAN'S ABILITY TO LAUNCH MISSILES AND DRONES CURTAILED
- *TRUMP: DON'T NEED OIL FROM MIDDLE EAST
- *TRUMP: WILL NEVER LET IRAN HAVE NUCLEAR WEAPON
Trump went to explain why he took us to war in Iran, focusing strongly on preventing Iran's nuclear capabilities, and correcting prior Presidents' mistakes.
“Essentially I did what no other president was willing to do.”
Then came the quasi-mission accomplished moment:
- *TRUMP: CORE STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES IN IRAN NEARING COMPLETION
- *TRUMP: THESE STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES NEARING COMPLETION
- *TRUMP: MUST COMPLETE MISSION IN IRAN
- *TRUMP: WE WILL FINISH THE JOB VERY FAST
- *TRUMP: GETTING VERY CLOSE TO FINISHING JOB IN IRAN
- *TRUMP: WE ARE ON TRACK TO COMPLETE ALL MILITARY OBJECTIVES
Hormuz is not America's problem...
Trump again says that other countries who rely on oil coming through the Strait of Hormuz to take control of it: “We will be helpful, but they should take the lead.”
- *TRUMP: US HAS PLENTY OF GAS
- *TRUMP: WE IMPORT ALMOST NO OIL THROUGH HORMUZ
- *TRUMP: COUNTRIES THAT GET OIL THROUGH HORMUZ MUST TAKE LEAD
- *TRUMP: COUNTRIES RECEIVING OIL VIA HORMUZ MUST CHERISH IT
- *TRUMP ON HORMUZ: WILL OPEN NATURALLY WHEN CONFLICT OVER
And the clarification for American voters:
Trump pins the runup in gas prices entirely on “the Iranian regime launching deranged terror attacks against commercial oil tankers in neighboring countries that have nothing to do with the conflict.”
- *TRUMP: INCREASE IN GASOLINE PRICES DUE TO IRAN ATTACK ON TANKERS
- *TRUMP: SHORT-TERM GAS PRICE INCREASE DUE TO IRAN'S ATTACKS
- *TRUMP: US NEVER BEEN BETTER PREPARED ECONOMICALLY
- *TRUMP: WE'RE IN GREAT SHAPE FOR THE FUTURE
- *TRUMP: OIL PRODUCTION WILL SOON BE SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER
- *TRUMP: ECONOMY WILL SOON COME ROARING BACK
Then came the threats:
- *TRUMP: WE WILL NOT LET MID EAST ALLIES GET HURT OR FAIL
- *TRUMP: WILL HIT IRAN EXTREMELY HARD OVER NEXT 2-3 WEEKS
- *TRUMP: WILL BRING IRAN BACK TO STONE AGE WHERE THEY BELONG
- *TRUMP: NEW LEADERS IN IRAN LESS RADICAL, MORE REASONABLE
- *TRUMP: IF THERE IS NO DEAL, WILL HIT IRAN'S ELECTRIC PLANTS
- *TRUMP: WE HAVE NOT HIT THEIR OIL EVEN THOUGH EASIEST TARGET
- *TRUMP: WILL HIT IRAN WITH MISSILES IF WE SEE THEM MAKE A MOVE
- *TRUMP: WE HAVE ALL THE CARDS THEY HAVE NONE
And ended on an optimistic note:
- *TRUMP: ON THE CUSP OF ENDING IRAN'S THREAT TO AMERICA
Oil had been selling off heading into Trump's address, with traders looking for clearer signals on whether Washington will end the war in the coming weeks, but started to rally strongly as Trump began speaking as traders did not hear the 'mission accomplished' they were hoping for, erasing all of yesterday's ceasefire chatter...
Not what many were expecting...
"In a triumph of hope against experience, some oil traders had been looking for clarity from Trump’s speech. He has provided no direction, repeating past comments and mixing bravado and threats with the prospect of an imminent end. That has pushed Brent and WTI higher," said Bloomberg's Clara Ferreira Marques.
and not one mention of the word 'ceasefire' or 'uranium'.
For crude traders, producers and users, the main takeaway from Trump’s remarks is that the global oil-supply crunch triggered by Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz is probably set to persist through April.
Each day the waterway’s been shuttered has translated into the loss of about 11 million barrels, according to an earlier Bloomberg tally.
