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The fact that the judiciary is not independent of political influence and that not all politicians are equal before the court, even before the court of one of the leading European countries that is considered the cradle of equality, was once again demonstrated by the verdict handed down on March 31, 2025 against the leader of the strongest French party, the National Rally, Marine Le Pen. In December 2023, she was accused, along with twenty-three of her party colleagues, of misusing European Parliament funds by having parliamentary assistants paid with European money work for the benefit of the party.
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Le Pen was sentenced to four years in prison, two of which were suspended, and a fine of 100,000 euros. In addition, she was banned from running for public office for the next five years, which includes the 2027 presidential election, in which she is the absolute favorite.
According to public opinion surveys, published days before the verdict, Le Pen has never been closer to the Elysée Palace, as 37 percent of voters would currently support her in the election. According to this survey, Le Pen has a better chance of winning than French President François Mitterrand had in 1988 (34 percent) and better than the aforementioned Sarkozy had in 2007 (31 percent). According to this survey, Le Pen's support has increased by as much as ten percentage points compared to 2022 and she is far ahead of all competitors, both on the right and the left.
The ruling against Le Pen is the third time that a court in a Western democracy has attempted to disqualify a presidential front-runner and ban him from political life, not for treason or murder, but for vague and little-known technical violations brought before the court under entirely new legal theories.
Before her, victims of this type of persecution were Donald Trump (who was charged with as many as 34 criminal offenses) and the completely unexpected winner of the first round of the presidential elections in Romania held on November 24, 2024, Călin Georgescu, who was legally barred from participating in the repeat elections scheduled for May 4 and 18. All this because of obscure accusations of some kind of Russian interference via TikTok.
The biggest problem with Le Pen's verdict is that the five-year ban on running for public office takes effect immediately, regardless of an appeal that Le Pen has announced. This means that even if Le Pen is found not guilty on appeal, the length of the process will prevent her from running in an election where, according to polls, she would have a good chance of defeating the establishment candidate.
There is a counterexample to this case in French judicial practice. Sarkozy was convicted twice – on March 1, 2021 and September 30, 2021 – of corruption, influence peddling, and illegal campaign financing. In addition to the prison sentence (six months in prison and six months suspended), Sarkozy was also sentenced to a three-year ban on running for public office, but this sentence only came into effect after the appeals process was completed and the verdict became final, in February 2024.
Le Pen herself did not believe in the possibility of such a verdict – the night before the verdict was pronounced, she confidently said that she did not believe in the possibility of being disqualified, and many of her party colleagues had made similar statements in the previous period, probably thinking that the judge would not dare to disqualify the leader of the strongest French party. The judges, however, gave a very harsh assessment of how the money was misused and even accused Le Pen and her associates of undermining democracy.
This verdict is an insult to both Martin Le Pen voters and French democracy. All the more so when one considers the “Romanian case”, but also the European attitude towards the recent elections in Moldova and Georgia, as well as the attempts and announcements to ban the second strongest party in Germany, the AfD. This verdict can only reinforce the impression among an increasing number of Europeans that it is precisely the European elite that is undermining democracy.
The question arises whether the judges were judging in accordance with some kind of political orders. “There is no need for (judges) to receive instructions,” says Le Pen. Indeed, in France, as in many other Western countries, the ideologisation of a large part of the judiciary has been taking place for almost fifty years and is bearing fruit today. It should be borne in mind, for example, that in June 2024, on the eve of parliamentary elections, the judiciary union called for mobilization against the coming to power of the “extreme right.”
Rivals and enemies of Marine Le Pen and her party, however, should not rejoice too much over this ruling. She may be legally barred from running, but her party is not, and the National Rally’s second man, Jordan Bardella, will now most likely be their presidential candidate. However, it should be emphasized that Le Pen is a fighter and will make every effort to fight for justice, that is, the opportunity to run in the elections.
French Prime Minister François Bayrou (who was acquitted of similar charges of misuse of EU funds last year) recently acknowledged that the decision to disqualify Le Pen could have a strong positive impact on the National Rally in public opinion. His Minister for Gender Equality, Aurora Bergé, also warned that banning Le Pen from running could have “consequences” in the election.
Le Pen herself has announced that she will continue her fight. “I will appeal,” she said after the verdict was announced. And if the appeal process is concluded after the 2027 presidential election and ends with a decision that she is not guilty, what will happen to her political disqualification?
Whether Le Pen is removed politically remains to be seen. However, one thing is certain, the anger of her 11 million voters will continue to simmer in the days, months and years ahead and at some point will probably boil over, because the French people will not quietly suffer institutional injustice.