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Mark your calendars: May 1st, 2025, may go down in history as a watershed moment in British politics. Think of it as the British equivalent of a political earthquake, with tremors felt from the sleepy towns of Cheshire to the bustling streets of London. This was the day when the old order was shaken to its core, and a new force, Reform UK, burst onto the scene like a bull in a china shop, smashing through the established norms and leaving the traditional parties scrambling for cover.

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Led by the indomitable Nigel Farage, Reform UK didn’t just make waves; it created a teal tide that washed away the old guard and ushered in a new era. The significance of this day cannot be overstated. It’s the kind of political upheaval that comes along once in a generation, if that, and for those of us who have long despaired at the stagnation of British politics, it’s a reason to be downright cheerful.

Let’s start with the Runcorn by-election, a contest so tight it would make even the most seasoned political operative break out in a cold sweat. Reform UK snatched victory from the jaws of defeat, winning by a mere six votes after a recount (the first round was even closer, a metre 4 votes). Yes, six votes, the kind of margin that underscores just how dramatically the political landscape is shifting. This wasn’t just a local skirmish; it was a harbinger of the upheaval to come. Runcorn, once one of Labour’s safest seats, fell to Reform UK on a 17.4% swing, marking the closest by-election in post-war British history. It was a stunning upset that set the tone for the rest of the day’s results.

If Runcorn was the appetiser, the mayoral elections were the main course, served with a side of surprise and a dash of drama. In Lincolnshire and Hull, Reform UK didn’t just compete; they conquered. Dame Andrea Jenkyns, a former Conservative MP who defected to Reform, became the first mayor of Greater Lincolnshire, winning with a commanding 42% of the vote. In Hull and East Yorkshire, former Olympic gold medal winning boxer, Luke Campbell, secured another mayoral victory for Reform, beating the Liberal Democrats into second place. These wins were not just symbolic; they were a clear indication that Reform UK was tapping into a vein of discontent that the traditional parties had failed to address.

Across the board, Reform UK outperformed the Conservative Party in every mayoral contest except Cambridgeshire, where the Tories clung on by their fingernails. Even there, Reform came a close second, breathing down their necks in a region that was once a Tory stronghold. And then there’s North Tyneside, where Reform UK came within 444 votes of victory despite having no formal campaign. Yes, no campaign, and yet they almost snatched the mayoralty from Labour’s grasp. It’s the kind of result that would make any political strategist sit up and take notice.

Perhaps the most surprising result came from Bristol, a city that was considered a “no hope” area for Reform UK. Against all odds, they came second in the West of England mayoral race, proving that their appeal was not confined to rural heartlands but could resonate in urban centers as well. These mayoral victories and near-misses show that Reform UK is not just a protest vote but a serious contender for power at the local level.

If the mayoral elections were the main course, the council victories were the dessert—sweet, satisfying, and leaving Farage’s ‘common sense army’ wanting more. Across England, Reform UK achieved a sweeping success that few could have, and none actually predicted. They won control of 10 councils, a remarkable feat for a party that was virtually unknown just a few years ago. These weren’t just any councils; they were seats taken from the Tories, Labour, the Liberal Democrats, and even the Greens in one or two places.

The Tories were hit hardest. They lost control of all 15 councils they were defending, with 9 of those going directly to Reform UK. It was a bloodbath that left the Conservative Party licking its wounds and questioning its very existence. Labour didn’t fare much better. They lost the only council they were defending, Doncaster, to Reform UK, a humiliating defeat for a party that had hoped to capitalise on its recent general election victory. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats managed to pick up control of three councils where they already had a significant presence, but it was a modest gain compared to Reform’s landslide.

The scale of Reform’s success is staggering. From a standing start, they won 677 councillors, while the Tories shed 676, a loss that is almost poetic in its symmetry. Labour, fresh off their general election victory, lost 186 seats, mostly to Reform and the Greens. Even the Liberal Democrats, with their long tradition in local government, only managed to gain 163 seats, a far cry from the clean sweep they had hoped for.

Perhaps the most telling statistic came from the BBC’s projected popular vote share. According to their analysis, Reform UK garnered 30% of the vote, with Labour trailing at 20% and the Tories languishing at a historic low of 15%. It was the first time in history that neither Labour nor the Conservatives topped the projection, signaling a profound shift in the political landscape. For the Tories, this was their worst-ever performance in such a projection, a stark contrast to their previous low of 25% in 1995.

These numbers are not just figures on a page; they reflect a deep well of dissatisfaction with the status quo. Reform UK has positioned itself as the champion of the disaffected, and the British electorate has responded in kind.

In the hallowed halls of Westminster, the official opposition is still the Conservative Party, led by Kemi Badenoch. But let’s be honest: the real opposition, the one that has captured the imagination of the British public, is Reform UK. Nigel Farage has made it clear that his party is the true voice of dissent against the Labour government, and the results from May 1st back him up. While Reform may not have the formal status of the opposition in Parliament, they are undoubtedly the opposition in the hearts and minds of England at large.

This distinction is crucial because it shows that the old two-party system, which has dominated British politics for over a century, is under threat. Reform UK is leading the charge to dismantle it, and their success in these elections is a clear sign that the political landscape is fragmenting.

For Kemi Badenoch, the leader of the Conservative Party, the results are nothing short of catastrophic. No opposition leader in post-war Britain has faced such a dismal first electoral test. The Tories are under existential threat, with their last strongholds in the County Councils now captured by Farage’s insurgent party. Badenoch is under colossal pressure to turn things around, but it’s hard to see how she can do that when the party is bleeding support to Reform UK. The Tories are caught between a rock and a hard place: they can’t out-Reform Reform, and they can’t win back the voters they’ve lost without alienating their remaining base.

For Labour, the situation is equally dire. The coalition that swept them to their largest majority in history has fractured. Durham, once a bastion of Labour support in the post-industrial former mining heartlands, has fallen to Reform UK. The party is now reduced to relying on public sector unions and university towns for support, but even there, they are facing challenges from the Greens. Moreover, Labour’s ethnic vote, particularly among Muslim communities, has been swayed by independents focused on issues like Gaza, leading to a haemorrhage of support in urban areas. Their coalition is now so thin that it’s hard to see how they can maintain a majority in the next general election in 2029.

For Reform UK, the challenge now is to transition from a superlative campaigning vehicle to a party that can actually deliver for its electorate. It’s one thing to win elections; it’s another to govern effectively. But if there’s one thing we’ve learned about Reform UK, it’s that they are not afraid of hard work. Their candidates have shown a sheer work rate that is unmatched in British politics, and there’s every reason to believe they can rise to the occasion.

If they can pull it off, and I have no doubt they can - though there will of course be potholes in the road - then the predictions that Nigel Farage will be the next Prime Minister may well come true. Already, the bookies have him as the favorite, and with the momentum behind Reform UK, it’s not hard to see why. And if that happens, it is just possible that the UK’s long decline may be not just halted, but reversed. For too long, Britain has been mired in stagnation, with successive governments failing to address the fundamental issues facing the country. But with Reform UK at the helm, there is a chance for a new beginning, a chance to restore Britain to its former glory.

So, let’s raise a glass to the future. The old order is crumbling, and a new era is dawning. It’s a time of change, of opportunity, and of hope. And for that, we should all be happy.