President Hakainde Hichilema with his cabinet in 2021
Credit: Wikimedia Commons / CC BY-SA 4.0

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Zambians are scheduled to vote for president on Thursday, August 13, where current President Hakainde Hichilema is expected to run against a newly formed opposition coalition to determine if he receives a second term to continue his campaign to strengthen Zambia's economy through an expansion of copper production.

According to the Electoral Commission of Zambia, approximately 8.79 million voters have been registered to participate in the elections. Fourteen presidential candidates are in the running, though analysts say Hichilema's most credible competition is likely to be Brian Mundubile, a lawyer and leader of the Tonse Alliance opposition coalition who emerged in January after internal disputes restructured the opposition landscape.

Hichilema came into office after five consecutive losses in presidential elections stretching back to 2006. His tenure has been defined by one of the most ambitious economic restructuring projects in Africa. Zambia had defaulted on sovereign debt repayments to China and other creditors in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic. Through negotiations with the International Monetary Fund, bilateral creditors, and private bondholders, Zambia restructured more than billion in debt. Inflation has since fallen to 6.8 percent, and the Kwacha has stabilized.

Despite those gains, macroeconomic stability has not erased the effects of economic hardship at the household level. According to political analyst Levy Ndou, a lecturer at Tshwane University of Technology, approximately 60 percent of Zambians still live in poverty. High food, fuel, and electricity prices remain the largest issues for most voters, who say five years of reform have yet to reach them.

According to economist Trevor Hambayi, who spoke to the AP: 'You expect a minimum of three years to be able to drive an economic agenda and turn around a country. That has passed and they've had five years. But these effects have not yet trickled down to the Zambian people.'

The election carries significance beyond Zambia's borders. The country has some of the world's largest copper deposits — a mineral essential for the global energy transition — and Hichilema has promised to nearly triple copper production to 3 million metric tons by 2031, a level that would place Zambia among the top global producers. That potential has drawn renewed investment from both Western nations and China, making Zambia a key node in the competition for critical mineral supply chains.

An opinion poll by consultants at the University of Zambia showed Hichilema leading with 60 percent support, compared to the combined opposition at 35 percent. The vote is being closely watched internationally as a test of democratic governance in a region where elections have increasingly become contested affairs.

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