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Originally published at Tsarizm.
Much of Europe continues to buy Russian liquefied natural gas, and this explains many of the targets and non-targets of the ongoing war in Ukraine. While long-range strikes by the Ukrainians have targeted to destroy Russian oil refining and related products infrastructure, the country’s major LNG export facilities have, for the most part, been left intact.
Refining: Crude runs at Russian refineries have reportedly dropped to multi-decade lows. Export restrictions are in place for diesel, with half of the country’s top diesel producers reported offline or heavily restricted by September 2026.
The deep strikes of September 2026 hit gas-condensate processing plants in the Yamalo-Nenets region, in the towns of Novy Urengoy and Purovsky. The plants that were hit by the strikes are not part of the Russian LNG production, and the Yamal LNG trains were not struck. The largest share of Russia’s total LNG exports is produced by the Yamal LNG terminals, which have a production capacity of about 17.4 million tonnes of LNG per year and sit further north than the plants that were hit.
Ukraine has so far avoided targeting operational LNG plants in the conflict. Analysts have noted that Western sensitivity to the global gas market and Europe’s continued imports are frequently cited as the reason.
European importers continue to receive large volumes of LNG under long-term contracts, including Yamal LNG, and the full statutory ban is only being phased in through 2027. In the first nine months of this year record volumes of LNG were delivered to EU terminals by Yamal cargoes.
This is uncomfortable for the governments in Brussels. While for years the Governments of Europe and of the world have been imploring others to cut off the Russians, they themselves continue to take delivery of record quantities of Russian gas and the plants that produce it have been ‘off target’. The assault on the diesel production of Russia has had a measurable effect, while Europeans continue to buy the same country’s LNG.
And it clearly illustrates just how much the requirements of the European energy supplies determine the course of this war. The power generating gas and the industrial gases that Europe needs are left untouched by the Ukrainian strikes – for the time being, and as long as the contracts are running.
We will have to wait and see whether European importers are still prepared to take Russian LNG when the ban is finally phased in through 2027.
