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Zambia held general elections Thursday in what some analysts are calling the country's most competitive vote in years. President Hakainde Hichilema, who has led the Southern African nation since 2021, is seeking a second term. Hichilema's opponents, whose supporting parties have mainly been built around the legacy of former President Edgar Lungu, have organized in opposition to Hichilema in the recent elections.
Hichilema has presided over important changes in the country since coming to power, including Zambia's successful negotiations with its creditors to conduct a historic debt restructuring program. Since he took office, Zambia had not defaulted on its international debt obligations. However, the 2020 default caused a shock and anxiety throughout the African and international financial markets, and attracted the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) concern. Since then, major economic indicators in Zambia have shown significant improvements. Inflation, which was previously elevated, has declined to its lowest levels. Forecasts made by foreign investors suggest that Hichilema will win and serve a second term.
All that said, voters have shown strong reservations regarding the benefits of the macroeconomic changes. Many say the cost of living has not eased despite inflation reducing. Job creation has lagged economic growth, which has coupled with increased pressure on household budgets, to further weaken the purchasing power of Zambians.
For the opposition, Brian Mundubile, an experienced parliamentarian, is the favorite of the opposition parties. However, analysts say the opposition is most likely to be weakened by the divisions within the opposition coalition, which has drawn large crowds to rallies. The opposition candidates against Hichilema have also split in some areas, possibly presenting a divided vote against the ruling party.
Zambia's presidential elections must receive over 50 percent of the total votes to win. If no candidate receives over 50 percent, then a runoff occurs with the two candidates receiving the most votes. These elections occur for the presidential, parliamentary, and local government positions all at once.
Zambia stands out among many of its neighboring countries for its record of peaceful transfers of electoral power. Since the establishing of democratic elections in 1991, there have been multiple peaceful transfers of presidential power.
In recent years, the months leading up to the elections have been marked by repression of the opposition and voting malpractice; however, the Hichilema government has denied these claims. Zambia is rated 'partly free' by the US nonprofit Freedom House because of the challenges faced by the opposition at both the legal and practical levels. Zambia's copper, which is increasingly mining countries competing with China, gives the results of the election significant effects beyond Zambia's borders.
