Talks are taking place in Muscat, Oman and first round took place on Saturday
The initial semi-face to face meeting took place on Saturday between American Presidential Envoy Steve Witkoff and Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. The parties stayed in different rooms, but did meet briefly. Omani Foreign Minister Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi took messages between the rooms to facilitate the discussions.
President Trump was on one hand encouraged by the talks, but on the other hand warned of grave consequences if Iran achieves nuclear capabilities.
Here are some key points and assessments:
- The Iranians seem terrified of meeting directly with the American delegation. This is an attempt to save face after the Iranians have been shwacked by Israeli counter-attacks and the Coalition Air and Missile defenses almost perfectly zeroed out the Iranian missile launches at Israel and other targets.
- Iran should be looked at as a Colony of China at this point. China has an enormous footprint of “advisors” in Iran and Iran would not be viable without the massive Chinese Oil and Gas purchases from Iran. The IRGC, Mullahs, and President would not be in control of the country if it wasn’t for the Chinese support.
- We’ve been concerned about Iranian nuclear capability since the 1990s. There has been this constant drumbeat that Iran is one turn of the screw away from having a nuclear warhead for almost 30 years. I’m going to take it a step further. I think it is prudent to presume that at this point, Iran has 20 - 50 nuclear bombs / warheads - most likely from North Korea. The warheads would be “mate-able” to the panoply of Iranian rockets and missiles, most of which have a North Korean, Chinese, and Russian heritage. Are these warheads safe and reliable - probably not if their source is North Korea which is notorious for extra shoddy work.
- The talks are taking place in Muscat on the north coast of Oman, the same location that most of Iran’s missile supply to the Houthis transit on their journey to Yemen - next country, south of Oman.
- The U.S. Military is assembling two aircraft carriers, at least one cruise missile submarine, six B-2s, and multiple F-35s close by to show the seriousness of the President’s statements on “no nukes for Iran”. How does this play with my assessment that Iran already has unsafe/unreliable warheads? The American Intelligence Community has been sloppy on their work here, poisoned by years of Obama/Biden Iranian spies. President Trump is doing the right thing to give the Iranians a way out and perhaps try to peel them away from China before we lower the boom.
- Next steps - more discussions between the two, but the President has clear expectations on a timely outcome.
